The Nuclear Option

When I was young, we genuinely believed a nuclear war was possible. Every few weeks we would have a “Duck and Cover” drill, where we would get under our desks to protect us from a nuclear blast. We only had fire drills every couple of months, so it was easy to believe that a nuclear war was more likely than a fire. The Cuban missile crisis had only been a few years earlier, we had seen Nikita Khrushchev banging his shoe at the United Nations. We gradually accepted that Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) would work as a preventative to nuclear attack and admitted there were not enough shovels to dig all the holes we would hide in. Who could possibly start a war if it meant an end to life on Earth?

Now we have an idea. Vladimir Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons at least three times in the last two years, since invading Ukraine. Maybe he believes that there will be no retaliation. The idea that leaders are rational, if sometimes ill informed, has been proven wrong more and more often in the last fifty years. Augusto Pinochet, Idi Amin, and Mao Zedong were all outside our experience, scary stories about places far away. Donald Trump has visions of being that type of leader, and an amazing number of people think he should be our president. So now we know “How could they elect someone like that?” because we have, and may do again.

Vladimir Putin has a history of brutal leaders to emulate, Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin set an example, and he has used some of their methods on his own people. War is not as scary to politicians in the former Soviet Union. In America, we have the horror of Vietnam to keep us from rattling our sabre. We seem to have realized that the Middle East is a region to avoid, but we are taking the same steps we took prior to World War two; not involved, just protecting shipping lanes. Well, a civilian merchant ship has been sunk, and our attacks on “Iranian backed militants” is rapidly losing its opaqueness.

Should we become involved in a war in the Middle East, how does the danger of an American response decrease in the eyes of Mr. Putin? This is a reasonable question, and we should be working on convincing Vladimir that the answer is zero, even though we know better. We knew Formica desktops weren’t going to stop a nuclear blast, but we still went through the motions.

Call it good or bad, the press had much to do with our impression of Vietnam. Ask someone under forty and they’ll tell you the only people who returned had PTSD and were a danger to themselves and others. In reality, only 2.7% of Americans in theatre (because we didn’t stay in Vietnam, we visited Laos, Cambodia, parts of Thailand and a couple of other little countries over there) died as a result of military action. You don’t hear about the millions who returned and led normal lives because they were normal, not newsworthy.

In addition to his direct threats of nuclear weapons due to his invasion of Ukraine, he has also been suggesting that Russia might park nuclear weapons in space. This would be a direct violation of the Outer Space Treaty of 1966, but the Putin regime has projected an attitude of “What are you going to do about it.” Putin claims they will be anti satellite weapons, which makes no difference to the treaty, and is not truly plausible. The Russians abandoned an anti satellite program in the 80s, which at the time was best described as throwing a hand-grenade at a satellite. Vladimir has suggested that this program is similar, but a nuclear weapon is not required. One weapon one satellite, as satellites are one degree of Longitude (about 45 miles) apart. There was one incredible Reagan nuke in space idea, the blast directed to a number of independently aimed ruby tubes which would project something of a laser beam, hundreds of them. This was part of the strategy to get the Soviets to dump money into hopeless Research and Development programs. Maybe they did. But detonating a nuclear weapon in space has a similar effect as detonation on Earth, the blast radius of their largest (50 megatons) weapon is one mile. As for Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP), effects, satellites are in space, already heavily shielded to protect from solar flares and such.

Putting it all together, we’re looking at a bully with the ability to end civilization. A bully who may not even know what he’s talking about. We have a history of reckless leaders, in searches of “The top ten brutal (or reckless) leaders,” at least seven have been in the last hundred years. Its not something of the past like Genghis Khan, It’s every decade or so. More people/more people to kill aside, absolute power destroys powers of reasoning. This is what you would call a convergence if you were of the type to believe the stars have any effect on individuals. Everything is aligned and I hope it has as much meaning as your astrological sign.

I am a survivor, I remain standing despite numerous reasons not to. But should the day come, the best place to be is ground zero. Even those who survive unscathed will have to live with the total collapse of civilization.

A different kind of war

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, attend a summit in the Élysée Palace, Paris, on 9 December. Photograph: Mikhail Metzel/Tass

In February, Russia and Belarus initiated war games, an exercise in capabilities, in Belarus, Northwest of Ukraine. Shortly afterward, fighting in “separatist zones” in Eastern Ukraine intensified. On the 24th of February, Russian President Vladamir Putin announced a “special military campaign to support the right of the peoples of Ukraine to self-determination.” Within minutes of Putin’s announcement, explosions were reported in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and the Donbas, Russian troops had landed in Mariupol and Odessa, Russina military vehicles entered Ukraine through Senkivka near Belarus, The Country of Ukraine was attacked on all sides by a foriegn military campaign, promising not to occupy but still taking territory.

It is believed that President Putin envisioned a three day campaign with Ukraine surrendering quickly, as shown by his procession of tanks with inadequate fuel. It is presently day fifty five and the Ukrainians have had meaningful victories. They sank the Moskva, a flagship of the Russian Navy; there is talk of them winning the war.

Ukraine doesn’t have many military targets, but with a civilian, resistance style force everything is a target. Civilian buildings, schools, hospitals and apartment complexes are now targets. When the refugees return it will be to rubble.

While millions of women and children have escaped to the west via Poland and other neighboring countries, the men have stayed behind to fight like the corned animals they been forced to become, fighting to protect their homes in a battlefield of their homes. It feels odd to watch some of the footage from the area; Gentle older men in tweed jackets with shotguns and blood on their shirts walking through the bombed out remains of their village. Without gunfire the scene is peaceful, stray dogs and birds still around. The determination and bravery of the Ukrainian people is highlighted in an exchange between a Ukrainian outpost on an island off the coast. Offered the opportunity of safe passage upon surrender, the small contingent of Ukrainians replied “Go fuck yourself.” Most of the Ukrainian soldiers survived the immediate, brutal shelling by the warship.

Russia entered the conflict with more soldiers on the border than they sent into Afghanistan in the 80s. The war is routinely referred to as the biggest since WWII. But this war is unique.

This is the first ground war in a nuclear power. The Ukraine has 16 nuclear reactors, including the remains of Chernobyl. There is not an “off” switch for nuclear facilities, they require specialized maintenance constantly. The potential for fifteen more Chernobyls rests in the hands of Russian conscripts as they move across Ukraine. The Chernobyl site itself was “occupied” by Russia until radiation poisoning convinced them to abandon the site.

An “end game” is difficult to discern. There have been reports of Ukrainians being kidnapped and relocated in Russia, so the speculation is that Putin is aiming for an unoccupied buffer zone formerly known as The Ukraine. There is the possibility Russia will lose, but only if Putin does not exercise his nuclear and biological weapons abilities. America has stayed out other than providing weapons, fearing a direct conflict between Russia and the United States of America, two nuclear powers with no common border. A war between the two could only be fought with missiles and invasion forces. Picture New York City in Mariupol’s condition, imagine what is taking place in the bombed out board rooms and stock exchange.

If Putin does decide to go “all in” on genocide, will the world react? Right now we’re trying cold war tactics, sanctions and such, because WWIII is not where anyone wants this to go. By using weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine, any belief that Putin would not use them in a larger conflict are erased. If we enter a war with Russia we face the same tactics, will he bomb New York City or Wichita? We haven’t experienced civilian casualties since Pearl Harbor. An end of civilization may be closer than we think.

In the alternative, how long can we stay out of this, watching daily acts of genocide? Is that not also an end of civilization? There is enough of the old warrior still within me to say the end of the world is preferable to a world that accepts occasional genocide. As you might have guessed from my “Roland the headless Thompson Gunner” shirt the other day, I can only imagine how I would have reacted seven years ago, before my TBI. Single with few ties I’m sure I would visit the Ukraine Embassy and volunteer. War is an awful thing, and should be waged by those with an appreciation of life and death, by those who love their children.

The hero of Ukraine has turned out to be a former comedian, Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy, president of Ukraine. Never cowering, leading his people calmly. Of all the things he has said this stands out to me; “I don’t want my portraits to hang in your offices. . .Hang pictures of your children there and look them in the eyes before every decision.” Volodymyr emits “soul,” infecting his people with confidence and letting them see their own strengths. As Americans, we are not familiar with war at our doorsteps. The Ukrainian people are fighting for a homeland they are standing in, often the very ground they sleep over, knowing that if they lose they will be erased in the history of the victor.

Despite the resilience of the Ukrainian people, Russia has superior numbers and hardware. Even if they choose to slug it out with ground forces, it is their war to lose. How they lose it may change our world forever.

In some ways, Ukraine has already won.